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Posted April 22, 2026 at 12:54 pm
Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been somewhat volatile in recent months with its year-over-year (y/y) February result climbing from 1.1% in January to 1.7%, a result, in large part, of differences in the Chinese New Year dates during this year and in 2025. This February CPI ascent was primarily driven by the inflationary impact of the holiday occurring that month and a low base comparison because the festival and its inflationary impacts were observed in January of last year.
Even without the inflationary influences of the Chinese New Year, the March CPI is unlikely to ease significantly from the 1.7% print. Meanwhile, the IBKR prediction market contract with a “Yes” answer that asks if the CPI will exceed a threshold of 1.2% is priced at $0.80, which would pay $1 if correct. A deceleration to that degree, in my opinion, is unlikely. Consider the following:
Also, this week, the Singapore CPI is expected to arrive near 1.8% after coming in at 1.3% in February, according to the median estimate of 19 forecasters surveyed by Reuters. The IBKR prediction market contract asking if the CPI will come in north of 1.5% has a “Yes” answer priced at only $0.27. With higher energy prices, the lowest and highest estimate among the 19 analysts polled by Reuters is 1.3% and 2.1%. A reading above 1.5%, in my view, is highly likely due to higher energy costs.
Japan CPI Likely Accelerated as Well
Japan’s March CPI, likewise, is also poised to increase due to higher energy costs. In February, the gauge fell from 112.9 in January to 112.1. Even if higher energy costs were offset by declines in the prices of other categories, it’s highly probable that the gauge will exceed the 112 threshold found in the Interactive Brokers prediction market contract with a “Yes” answer that is priced at only $0.75. The prediction market also offers contracts with “Yes” answers that have thresholds of 112.8 and 113.6 that are both priced at $0.03.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 22, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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