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Posted December 11, 2025 at 12:55 pm
December 10 block trades on the ForecastEx platform featured two single transactions regarding yesterday’s Fed decision amounting to 21.993k and 10k contracts at 1:56 PM ET and 1:12 PM ET, less than an hour prior to the central bank’s statement release at 2:00 pm ET. The buyers of the “Nos” tied to a pause paid $0.96 on the former and $0.94 on the latter and were each returned $1.00 per instrument since the institution’s verdict ending up delivering an expected interest rate cut. But for January, there’s an 82% chance of a hold, and just 18% odds of another reduction.
Similarly, at 12:12 PM ET and 1:50 PM ET, ForecastEx saw 20k and 10k contracts exchanged in 2 single trades related to whether the GOP will win a majority in the 2026 midterm elections and if yesterday’s highest temperature in Chicago would exceed 39 degrees Fahrenheit. The political contract was paired by a buyer of the “No” at $0.68 and a separate purchaser of a “Yes” at $0.33, while the climate instrument’s action featured the “Yes” going through at $0.98 and the “No” for $0.03.
The European Union’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released near the first day of each month while reports for specific nations are available closer to the middle of the month. Tomorrow carries Germany and Spain on the schedule, which featured month over month (m/m) percentage changes of -0.5% and 0% in the flash reading. Since those numbers tend to be altered at the margins or not at all, we can use them to map out trades in the forecast contract universe. Indeed, Germany’s index value is projected to come in at 122.39 while Spain’s is likely to arrive at 119.3. Against this backdrop, I find the risk-reward profiles of the German “Nos” from 122.5 to 124.5 attractive, they’re ranging from $0.08 to $0.98 in price. Similarly, the Spanish “Yeses” at 118 and 188.5 as well as the “Nos” from 119.5 to 122 appear undervalued in my opinion, they’re spanning from $0.62 to $0.98 in cost.
Source: Eurostat
India’s CPI Is Projected to Come in at 197.88
India’s CPI is much more volatile than the EU, but the consensus estimate expects a number of 197.88. The range of the 41 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll is particular wide, however, with the lowest expectation at 196.30 while the highest is at 199.05. Our forecast market meanwhile prices a 34% probability of a figure north of 198 amidst a 19% chance of a result south of 197.1.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 11, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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