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Posted July 28, 2025 at 12:45 pm
Today’s trade of the day concerns tomorrow’s job openings release. Labor conditions have been strengthening in the short-term alongside economic growth and consumer and business confidence, suggesting stability or potential expansion in employer vacancies instead of a sharp contraction. I don’t envision a plunge in this Tuesday’s number for June, and for that reason, I find the risk-reward profile of the “Yes” forecast contract at the 7.3 million threshold attractive. It’s going for $0.86. Finally, the three-month moving average is trending north: it’s only come in below 7.3 million twice in the past 53 months and a Reuters survey of 25 forecasters resulted in a median estimate of 7.55 million with a bias for a beat rather than a miss.
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Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 28, 2025.
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