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Posted July 1, 2025 at 10:51 am
Monthly changes in the European unemployment rate have rarely exceeded 0.2%. In fact, going back to 2004, moves in excess of 0.2% were isolated to significant economic problems. Time periods near the Great Financial Crisis, the ensuing Euro Debt Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic saw increases north of 0.2% in only a few months. Meanwhile, this Wednesday’s release is expected to reflect an unchanged 6.2% for May. In light of decent labor conditions and historical tendencies, a climb to 6.4% is highly unlikely and the “No” at 6.3% appears undervalued to me at just $0.80. Furthermore, out of the 30 forecasters surveyed in a Reuters poll, no one penciled in a jump of that magnitude, which is what’s required for “Team No” to lose here.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 1, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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