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Posted April 8, 2026 at 12:37 pm
Markets are reacting to a powerful mix of rising rates, shifting oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. IBKR’s Jeff Praissman is joined by Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy to break down the key signals driving volatility and what investors should watch as inflation data and earnings season take center stage.
The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.
Hey everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers. It’s my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are you?
Jeff, I am very happy to be here today.
Always love having you come in for our midweek sessions. And like always, no lack of news.
No lack of news.
Exactly. But I do want to kick it off with last week before we get into today and the week ahead. Last week was really kind of the first week of Q2. Obviously, it opened up with some heightened volatility. What market themes or signals stood out most to you during last week’s trading?
Obviously, geopolitical risks, right? Minute by minute, it’s escalating—it’s not, it’s escalating—it’s not. But beyond that, I think what was really driving this market, if you will, is interest rates. We’re seeing them down today, but we saw that 10-year approach 4.40, even pushing up to 4.50 or so based on some inflation concerns. I think that was as big of a concern for the equity markets as really anything else.
And what about labor data? Because we had some early April labor data and manufacturing readings. How are they shaping expectations for momentum heading into—
Well, that March jobs report was certainly pretty impressive following what we saw in February. I think there’s still some question out there about what is really real and what is not. Was it inclusive of the beginning of the Iranian war or not? So I think that is still yet to be determined.
In terms of manufacturing, we did see ISM manufacturing pushing up just a little bit, still in expansion territory. There are some lingering headwinds out there, but it is still in expansion territory, and I think it’s the strongest run we’ve seen in about four years.
And what asset classes or sectors—there’s obviously some appetite for risk out there—so which ones have stood out in these first couple days of trading?
Sure. Information technology has obviously been very volatile, but it has actually remained really strong. If you look overall at stocks like Western Digital and SanDisk, those were stocks that fell when there was some concern, but those rallies were really steep. So, pretty strong. And then some of the consumer staples area—stocks like Costco and Walmart—they fared really well during the risk appetite we saw over the last several weeks.
And now heading into this week—obviously big market news last night, maybe not so much of a surprise for a lot of people, but markets are up. We also have some fundamental economic data coming out as well, with CPI and PPI on the calendar this week. You mentioned inflation earlier—what kind of signals matter most right now?
It’ll be interesting to see what the data says about price pressures because of the oil spike, and because of rates. The oil spike did start happening, and some of that will be included in these reports that we’re seeing. So the big drawdown we’re seeing today is not going to be reflected in that. The CPI release does cover March. It’s going to be the first inflation print that will fully capture the beginning of the Middle East conflict. So it’ll be really interesting to see. I’m not sure we’re going to be able to glean a lot out of that, because the question and concern is going to be: if that’s behind us, what’s next? So I think there will definitely be some pressure on that report, but it will also be interesting to see what the Fed says about it.
Right. And what should investors be watching beyond the headlines? Obviously, there are tons of headlines, but going back to revisions or participation rates—any kind of underlying trends besides the constant chaos?
Well, as I just mentioned, we will get FOMC minutes today. I’m sure they’re going to mention pretty strongly some of the confusion around the Middle East conflict and how that is affecting inflation. But what makes this FOMC minutes release different, I think, is that there’s going to be less context. I don’t think the market is really going to be able to discern where the Fed is going from here. We know how the landscape has changed—from potential two cuts this year to maybe a rate hike later in the year. I don’t think we’re going to get any sort of clarity on that whatsoever. So I think what we do need to watch—and it’s hard to look ahead—we’ve got earnings starting next week. We have actually seen a huge uptick in positive guidance across sectors. So will that be able to meet expectations? I think it’s still a very cautious market. You have to really keep things close to the vest.
Scott, as always, this has been great. For more from Scott Bauer, you can go to prospertrading.com. Also on our website, there are tons of podcasts, webinars, and articles—go to ibkr.com, click on Education, and scroll down to either webinars or podcasts, or even just search for Prosper Trading. Scott, as always, thanks for coming by, and we look forward to our next session.
Thank you so much, Jeff.
The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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