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Posted April 9, 2026 at 12:58 pm
Tomorrow’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to jump above 3% for the first time since May 2024, as the surge in gasoline costs sparked by the Middle East conflict spreads across the economy. The median estimate for the headline statistic stands at 3.3%, but the range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, as the peak expectation of the 44 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll is at an elevated 4%. Meanwhile, the Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a number north of 3% with a 96% degree of confidence, while odds for a figure that fails to exceed 3.5% is at 92%.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, is expected to land around 2.6% or 2.7% meanwhile, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market pricing a number that fails to exceed 2.7% at 82%. Looking over and under, odds of a statistic coming in higher than 2.4% is at 95% while a figure below 3.1%, or failing to come in above 3%, is currently going for 95%.
Turning to Germany, tomorrow’s revision to the flash March CPI is likely to arrive near the 124.47 originally reported, as the indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it typically arrives close to estimates and its preliminary reading. The Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, prices a result above 124 at 86%, while one at or below 124.5 is at 88%. The “Yes” at 123.5 and the “No” at 125 are going for $0.91 and $0.95, against the backdrop. The effects of rounding could be critical here ladies and gentlemen.
The Canadian unemployment rate is historically volatile and can deliver significant surprises. Tomorrow’s March figure is expected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8%, according to the Reuters monthly poll of 15 forecasters. However, the minimum and maximum values stand at 6.6% and 6.9%, indicating the possibility for a sizeable miss on projections. The 6.6% threshold in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, prices out the “Yes” at $0.59 and the “No” at $0.39.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 9, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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