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Posted August 10, 2026 at 12:51 pm
US gasoline prices have exceeded $4.00 per gallon for three consecutive weeks, and tomorrow’s print is poised to be a close call. I think it’ll again arrive ahead of that level. Just six days ago, the average gasoline-station sign showed $4.079 and today’s lift in energy costs is likely to limit the decrease in the upcoming figure. Meanwhile, the “Yes” at the $4.00 threshold is going for just $0.21, but it would require a sizeable drop of $0.079 or more for the contract to lose. I consider this contract to be potentially undervalued. In my opinion, it should cost closer to $0.50, considering that a short-term decline of that magnitude is uncommon. Furthermore, it’ll deliver $1.00 back to investors on a number greater than or equal to $4.001. Over and under, the “Yeses” at $4.05 and $3.95 are priced at $0.02 and $0.95 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Singapore’s second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print is expected to come in near the preliminary report’s 5.7% year over year, as the 6% “Yes” contract in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets is going for $0.46. The pricing implies a light upward revision to 5.9% or 6% as the most likely outcome, against the backdrop of the historical absolute average and median changes looking back to 2005 standing at around 0.6% and 0.3%.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 10, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC risk disclosure. For a copy visit our warnings and disclosures page.
Interactive Brokers LLC es un Comerciante de Comisiones de Futuros registrado en la CFTC y miembro compensador y afiliado de ForecastEx LLC ("ForecastEx"). ForecastEx es un Mercado de Contratos Designado y una Organización de Compensación de Derivados registrada en la CFTC. Interactive Brokers LLC proporciona acceso a los contratos de pronóstico de ForecastEx para clientes elegibles. Interactive Brokers LLC no hace recomendaciones con respecto a los productos disponibles en su plataforma, incluidos aquellos ofrecidos por ForecastEx.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
La negociacion de futuros, contratos de eventos y contratos de pronóstico no son adecuados para todos los inversores. Antes de operar con estos productos, por favor lea la divulgación de riesgos de la CFTC. Para una copia visitenos aqui <a href="https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/homepage-disclosures.php
Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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