- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Latest Webinars
Latest Webinars
Posted February 25, 2026 at 12:52 pm
Last night’s State of the Union (SOTU) address failed to narrow the Democratic Party’s House of Representatives lead heading into this year’s midterm elections. The likelihood of a flip in the chamber’s majority started the year at 75% but has been rising throughout 2026 as President Trump’s approval ratings have been declining. It appears that the commander in chief’s attempts to bolster confidence in the US economy for lower- and middle-class voters, who tend to decide political outcomes at the ballots, are so far failing to improve the GOP’s prospects this November. Meanwhile, the stakes are high, as the White House will struggle to get legislation passed in a split Congress. Still, the Republicans are sustaining their probabilistic advantage in the Senate, which stands at 62%.
Expectations for tomorrow’s unemployment claims and Weekly Economic Index signal optimism about the near-term health of the cycle. Indeed, a number of around 212k priced in for initial jobless application and approximately 2.53% for the Dallas Fed’s gauge of activity momentum support a 2026 reacceleration and ongoing corporate earnings expansions as a result. The projections if sustained for extended durations especially bode well for the areas in the market that are increasingly sensitive to changes in household spending power, like financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, materials and energy.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 25, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
The Party in power hasn’t done well in the mid-terms in quite some time now. Not since the G. W. Bush administration in 2002; and I believe that was due in large part to the 9/11 attack in 2001. I think the odds makers take it into account.
Hopefully fo the sake of the country you are wrong