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Posted January 21, 2026 at 12:54 pm
Tomorrow’s delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October is expected to come in at 2.7% and the undervalued contract as it relates to the instrument is the “Yes” at 2.5%. The well-telegraphed print, in light of the indices for consumers and producers serving as inputs and being released much earlier in the month, has an incredibly narrow path to arriving at a figure that low.
Even though none of the seven forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll envision a number of 1.5% or higher for tomorrow’s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (they’re between 1.1% and 1.4%), this indicator is historically volatile and the “Yes” at 1.4% only costs what I consider to be an undervalued $0.05. I think it should cost closer to $0.20 in light of the wild swings that have materially deviated from economist expectations over the years.
The 13-week moving average of the Dallas Fed’s Economic Index is running at 2.23% but ForecastTrader participants think there’s a good chance that this year will feature a reacceleration in growth after last week’s strong 2.43% reading. Indeed, for tomorrow’s result, investors are pricing in 43% odds of a number north of 2.4%, which would mark the second print in a row above that threshold, which is a pretty tall bar.
Initial unemployment claims have been all over the place lately, as is typical surrounding holiday months. Emblematic of the volatility were the last three months serving numbers as high as 237k for the week ended Dec. 6 or as low as 192k for the seven-day period culminating on Nov. 29.
Canada’s New Housing Price Index hasn’t come in positive since February, but our investors see a path back to growth in December. Indeed, the “Yes” at -0.1% signals 61% odds of a figure landing at 0 or above.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 21, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx prediction market contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for ForecastEx contracts may be viewed at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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