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Posted May 21, 2026 at 1:02 pm
Tomorrow’s revision to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to feature a modest upgrade from the 48.2 record low, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices the 48 “Yes” at $0.71. A sharp adjustment north to 50 or 52 is improbable, however, considering that the historical absolute average and median changes from the preliminary to the final are 1 and 0.7, signaling an elevated likelihood of a range between 47.2 and 49.2. The “Nos” at those upper thresholds (50, 52) appear relatively attractive and undervalued in my opinion at $0.70 and $0.89. Under at 46 meanwhile, there’s an 87% chance of the result not falling to that level.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 21, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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