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Posted March 18, 2026 at 12:59 pm
Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market expect US layoffs to remain contained in tomorrow’s initial unemployment claims report. Participants are projecting a number between 210k and 220k, generally speaking, as the “Yes” on the former is going for $0.68 while the “No” on the latter is priced at $0.69. There’s some activity at the lower and upper thresholds as well, with a 7% chance of a figure failing to exceed 200k as well as a 10% probability of a statistic arriving north of 230k. Meanwhile, this week’s Reuters poll consisting of 33 economic prognosticators carries a median estimate of 215k alongside minimum and maximum values of 210k and 245k.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave rates unchanged tomorrow with a 97% degree of confidence; however, the committee is growing wary of the spike in energy costs. Indeed, Euro fixed-income watchers are now pricing in approximately two 25-basis point hikes this year as the continent is increasingly vulnerable to surging oil prices since it’s a major importer of crude.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 18, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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