- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted December 23, 2025 at 12:52 pm
Trading volumes at ForecastEx have been through the roof lately, with total pairings reaching 4.6 million on Dec. 22 and 15.7 million so far today with several hours to go. Prediction market enthusiasts continue engaging heavily with the same themes of the past few weeks, as daily high temperatures across US cities maintain a commanding share of transactions.
The past 27 weeks have featured a reading below 2% from the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) only once, and there’s little reason to believe that tomorrow’s print won’t exceed that level. Against the backdrop of the last two weeks featuring prints of 2.29%, a drop of 0.29% in seven days is not very likely, and the “Yes” contract at 2% is undervalued at $0.77, in my opinion. Additionally, the “Yes” at 1.8% also offers favorable risk-reward dynamics and is going for $0.91.
The US economy has momentum as seen in today’s ferocious 4.3% gross domestic product (GDP) print for the third quarter and there’s a very low chance of an imminent recession in my view even as fourth quarter performance will be hampered by the longest government shutdown in history. A technical recession by the end of Q1 2026 requires negative prints for both Q4 and Q1, but those odds are next to zero in consideration of a landscape that is benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus, lighter taxation, capex depreciation incentives, milder regulations, subdued energy costs and buoyant capital markets. The “No” recession contract for Q1 2026 is undervalued at $0.90 and should cost closer to $0.97 in my opinion.
Separately, the Q3 GDP print will be finalized in a month and a heavy revision down to 2.6% is almost impossible, making the “Yes” contract at that level undervalued at $0.96, since the release should be off the board in my opinion
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 23, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight “Yes” answers throughout different levels.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!