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Posted December 3, 2025 at 12:56 pm
Following the end of the longest government shutdown in history, economic calendars are beginning to normalize while bringing forecast traders that focus on economics back into their typical routines. But despite the delay and suspension of a plethora of data points, participants were gravitating to Fed rate decisions in light of many of the other indicators being unavailable. Indeed, US central bank verdicts are the top traded contracts across the category of economics. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims have returned to the schedule for Thursdays while the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index remained on. Below, I’ll share range trade ideas for both that I believe offer undervalued opportunities and expire tomorrow.
Initial unemployment claims have exceeded 210k for 43 consecutive weeks and are expected to come in at 220k tomorrow for the seven days ended on Nov. 29. I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Yes” contracts at 200k and 210k attractive; they’re going for $0.88 and $0.74. Due to evidence of labor market softness, a spike here is increasingly impossible and I’m avoiding “Nos” at loftier thresholds.
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index hasn’t dipped to 1.9% or exceeded 2.7% since June and April and there’s little evidence that last week’s 2.1% print will drop sharply or climb significantly. Indeed, economic conditions have been pretty stable despite lingering labor market risks. Against this backdrop of subdued volatility, I find the “Yes” at 1.9% and the “Nos” at 2.7% and 2.9% undervalued; they’re going for $0.87, $0.86 and $0.92.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 3, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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