![Check Your Calendar [Spread]](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/05/pod20250506mtkcham_coverimage-700x394.jpg "Check Your Calendar [Spread]")
A slam dunk opportunity has arisen for this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls in my opinion. A number in-line or near the consensus expectation of 135,000 would deliver a double and pay $2, but the beauty of this trade is that only $0.03 would be at risk. Let me explain. Buying the “Yes” answer to the question “Will the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 120,000 in April 2025?” for $0.52 and the “No” answer at the 170,000 threshold for $0.51 costs a total of $1.03 and would deliver $2.00 back to the investor on a number as low as 121,000 and as high as 170,000. The strong appeal of this trade folks is that a number below 120,000 or above 170,000 only results in a loss of $0.03, because one of the two contracts are guaranteed to pay out $1.00 and the total cost of the trade is just $1.03.
Meanwhile, tomorrow’s forecast contract expirations include the PCE price index and two contracts—natural gas and crude oil production—that I featured yesterday. The PCE indicator is well-telegraphed by Wall Street, meaning that it usually arrives near expectations because many of its inputs can be found in the indices for consumer and producer prices that are released earlier in the month. The median estimate for tomorrow’s 8:30 a.m. ET figure is 2.2%. Against this backdrop, I like a combination trade of buying the “Yes” answer to the question “Will the year-over-year change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 2%?” for $0.95 and the “No” answer at 2.4% for $0.90. The total cost of the trade is $1.85 and delivers $2.00 back to the investor on a result ranging from as low as 2.1% to as high as 2.4%.
Also tomorrow, we get our preliminary read on first-quarter GDP. Economists expect a 0.4% pace of growth. Our forecast contracts settle on June 26, however, when the final figure is reported. The gap between the initial print and the final reading offers investors an opportunity to select contracts and then collect interest-like incentive coupons at an annualized rate of 3.83% on shifting market values until expiration in almost two months. A trade I like going into tomorrow’s initial read is buying the “Yes” answer at -1% for $0.80 and the “No” answer at 1.5% for $0.82. The combination trade costs a total of $1.62 and would deliver $2.00 back to the investor on a final GDP print as low as -0.9% or as high as 1.5%.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 29, 2025.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: Forecast Contracts
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Disclosure: ForecastEx
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: ForecastEx Market Sentiment
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Disclosure: CFTC Regulation 1.71
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!