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Posted April 28, 2026 at 12:55 pm
Tomorrow’s Fed meeting is highly expected to feature a hold with a 99% likelihood, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market; however, there’s a 93% prospect of exactly 1, 2, or 3 dissenters formally disagreeing with the decision. Governor Stephen Miran has frequently preferred a cut rather than a steady posture, but in light of climbing Treasury yields and accelerating cost pressures that could land a 4-handle on the Consumer Price Index as early as May paired with robust labor conditions, there’s a probability that someone in the committee will actually prefer a hike. There’s recent precedent of a proposed lift, as last night’s Bank of Japan pause included 3 of the 9 officials favoring an increase instead of an unchanged level. Furthermore, the fed funds curve now offers a 4% chance of a 25-basis point raise in January, just as fixed-income observers consider several increases across the UK, ECB and Japan.
The central banks of Canada and of the European Union are also both expected to pause with elevated degrees of confidence of 96%.
Construction activity is expected to remain sluggish as February’s numbers for building permits and housing starts are set for tomorrow morning. March’s figures will also be available at the same time due to delays related to Q4’s government shutdown. Elevated mortgage rates, high materials costs, labor shortages, immigration restrictiveness and worsening affordability continue to weigh on the real estate sector. There are 57% and 68% probabilities of amounts north of 1.35 million and 1.3 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) for permits in February and March, while there are 48% and 60% likelihoods of statistics ahead of 1.4 million and 1.3 million SAAU for starts across both months. For context, January’s performances came in at 1.386 million and 1.487 million for the permit and starts indicators.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 28, 2026.
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