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Posted March 16, 2026 at 12:57 pm
With investors around the world contemplating how the recent surge in energy costs will affect monetary policy decisions from global central banks, Australia is likely to hike for the second consecutive meeting tomorrow. Indeed, participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market price a 74% chance that Sydney will raise its key interest rate by another 25 basis points. Subdued unemployment, ongoing job growth and an inflation level of 3.8% is motivating the restriction in financial conditions. And while fixed-income observers in the US still expect a cut from the Federal Reserve this year, rumors have it that policymakers in London and Frankfurt are apparently getting ready to potentially lift their benchmarks in response to the jump in crude which especially hurts UK and EU nations dependent on imports of oil and natural gas.
Speaking of climbing energy costs, participants think that the average US gasoline price will exceed a weekly average of $3.80 near the end of the month with a 65% degree of confidence. Charges were at $3.50 as of the week ended March 9 and the level of $3.80 hasn’t been breached in 2-and-a-half years, since September 2023.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 16, 2026.
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