Sea Surface Temperature

Open Account

Sea surface temperature, abbreviated SST, is the temperature of the upper layer of the ocean, and it is among the most closely watched inputs to tropical cyclone and seasonal climate forecasting. Warm ocean water supplies the energy that sustains hurricanes, which is why Atlantic activity peaks in late summer and autumn, and work dating to the late 1980s established a relationship between SST and the maximum intensity a storm can theoretically attain. SST patterns in the tropical Pacific also define the phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, so the same variable influences both individual storm intensity and the seasonal outlooks used to set baseline probabilities.

Do we still expect an active hurricane season? [8/27/2025]

Hurricane Forecast Contracts

Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025]

Bundling “NO” Hurricane Landfall Forecast Contracts to Reduce Downside Risk

When are scientific claims and expert assertions untrustworthy? And how prediction markets can help.

Do we still expect an active hurricane season?