Stocks Lack a Key Catalyst Today

“Anyone available to play golf today?  I have an extra spot in my 2:20 foursome.”  – a message in a group chat this morning…

These are the days when those of us on the equity side of the business are envious of our friends in the bond market.  They get to take off on federal holidays like Columbus Day, when the banking system, and hence the bond market, are closed yet equities are open[i].  Normally, that’s not much of an inconvenience, even if I’d rather take up my friend on his offer.  Lately though, stocks have been taking many cues from bonds, leaving them somewhat adrift this morning.

It’s certainly a bit weird to see zeroes in the column where I normally see changes in bond yields, especially on a morning when oil prices are about 2% higher.  That rise in prices is largely the result of renewed geopolitical concerns after attacks on the Riyadh airport and potential, disputed, energy deals involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine.  Bond yields and oil futures have been quite well correlated in recent weeks, so it would have been quite understandable if yields had risen this morning.  Alas, no.

Instead, we have stocks meandering somewhat aimlessly today.  There were some modest, attempted rallies during overnight trading and shortly after the open, followed by a bit of a buyers’ strike that took the S&P 500 (SPX) lower around mid-morning.  The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has proven to be a drag today, as tech is the only SPX sector in the red.  Semiconductors are a bit of a drag this morning, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) down by a bit more than 2%.  We have written at length about how a small cadre of megacap tech stocks have been able to keep broad indices aloft, Atlas-style, while many of the other components have weakened, so it is interesting to see the opposite occurring today. 

At this point, since I’ve pretty much exhausted all that I care to discuss about today’s activity, it’s time to look ahead to the rest of the week.  After last week’s relative paucity of economic and corporate data, this one promises a series of potentially meaningful catalysts.  Third-quarter earnings season “officially” kicks off tomorrow when JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) begin the parade of money-center bank reports and are joined by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH).  For those who pay attention to the Dow Jones (INDU), three of those stocks (#1 GS, #10 JPM, #15 JNJ) represent about 17% of that measure, with GS representing about 10% itself.  They’re followed by a large slew of banks and other financial institutions as the week progresses, though we don’t hear from many key stocks in other sectors until next week and beyond.

On the economic front, we get key inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday mornings when CPI and PPI are released, respectively.  Among the other copious statistics are the Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and Retail Sales on Thursday morning.  Those could certainly provide key catalysts for movements in yields and stocks. 

[i] Stock traders’ payback occurs on Good Friday, when stocks are closed but bonds are open.