Semis Get Crushed on China Competition Fears, Slowdown Angst: July 17, 2026

Semiconductors are getting crushed to finish the week as fears of Chinese competition from AI startup Moonshot add to existing worries about a potential slowdown in revenue growth among providers of the technology because of volatile pricing. With several chipmaker gauges falling into bear market territory, or a decline of 20% from all-time highs, Wall Street is growing worried that the robust trajectory of sales and profits could decelerate. Additionally, concerns that payouts from massive AI capital expenditures may not be as buoyant as initially expected keep battering Magnificent 7 names with the Nasdaq 100 nearing a technical correction. Meanwhile, upbeat economic data continue to support an equity rotation toward cyclically oriented shares in the Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 benchmarks, which are outperforming the S&P 500 today, although heightening geopolitical tensions are limiting that advance. Indeed, ongoing US-Iran violence continues to lift crude and interest rates; however, duration is catching bids after a beat on UMich’s Consumer Sentiment Index signaled lighter inflation expectations. Still, 6 of the 11 major stock sectors are advancing alongside a bifurcated Treasury curve featuring a rise at the short tenors amidst a sinking long-end, resulting in a flat greenback. Elsewhere, commodities are higher across the board, hedging demand is expanding as volatility protection instruments see heavier premiums, cryptocurrencies are retreating and prediction markets are experiencing engagement.

Easing Gas Prices Fuel Improvement in Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment improved this month as relief at the pump lifted household moods, but a revision in 14 days will likely pare back some of the lift as energy costs have become increasingly expensive this week. The University of Michigan’s headline number of 54.4 surpassed both the 51.7 projection and June’s 49.5, as the more granular measures of current and future conditions grew from 47.7 and 50.7 to 54.9 and 54. Bolstering the results were lighter short-term inflation expectations, as the 12-month estimate fell from 4.6% to 4.2%, although the 5-year forecast was flat at 3.3%. Still, families found prices to be far too high and that limited July’s gain.

Industrial Production Climbs for Third Consecutive Month

Industrial production expanded for the third consecutive month in June even as factories took a break from their relentless expansion. Headline growth of 0.1% month over month (m/m) matched May’s expansion but underperformed the expected 0.2%. Lifts of 0.4% m/m from the utilities and mining segments offset an unchanged manufacturing sector. From a market group perspective, consumer goods and material output rose 0.3% and 0.1%; however, the business equipment and construction sections retreated 0.4% each.

Housing Starts and Approvals Fall Below Expectations

Government approvals of new housing construction fell in June but groundbreaking on new projects climbed substantially, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Governments issued permits for 1.367 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, a decline from 1.41 million in May and below the economist consensus estimate of 1.4 million. Single-family authorizations, at an 871,000 rate, fell 2.4% from May’s revised figure of 892,000. Meanwhile governments issued 445,000 permits for projects involving five units or more, a decline from 468,000 in May. Total permits issued climbed 15.8% and 5.7% m/m in the Northeast and Midwest but sank 7.2% and 6.2% in the South and West.

Housing starts, however, moved in the opposite direction. Builders broke ground at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.427 million units, exceeding both the economist consensus estimate of 1.31 million and May’s 1.99 million.

The increase in starts was broad-based among regions with the following m/m gains:

• Northeast, 10.3%
• Midwest, 33.3%
• South, 15.2%
• West, 22.1%

Semis Different This Time?

Throughout history, semiconductors have notoriously been associated with boom-and-bust cycles, as insatiable demand for chips turn to oversupply once purchasing volumes reach their economic capacity. Investors are worried that the limits of massive transaction dollars could be near, especially against the backdrop of Wall Street being concerned that significant capital expenditures made by Magnificent 7 names may not deliver buoyant returns. Ongoing earnings reports will offer clues as to the payout dynamics of the outlays, and positive monetization trends could certainly revive the chip trade, but a failure to reflect bottom line buoyancy may further bury tech shares. Meanwhile, cyclical momentum remains robust and the data is healthy, so continued bids for the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 benchmarks are poised to contain volatility stemming from the AI-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 gauges.

International Roundup

Singapore’s Trade Balance Grows Despite Decline in Non-Electronic Exports

Singapore’s merchandise trade surplus more than doubled in June, climbing from S$5.55 billion in May to S$13.8 billion, the highest level since April 2025, according to Statistics Singapore and Enterprise Singapore. The country’s non-oil exports climbed 20.7% year over year (y/y), missing the economist consensus estimate of 30.2% and moderating from the 38.4% growth in May. On a m/m basis, non-oil exports fell 8.9% after climbing 7.7% m/m in May. The annual increase benefited from robust AI-related demand pushing up exports of integrated circuits, disk media products, and PCs 105.1%. Meanwhile, non-electronics shipments sank 2.9% y/y, a result of weaker sales abroad of non-monetary gold, petrochemicals and food preparations. A shortage of oils and chemicals resulting from the US-Iran war caused the country’s petrochemical manufacturers to reduce production.

Hong Kong Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 3.7%

Hong Kong’s unemployment rate for the May through June period was 3.7%, unchanged from the March through May timeframe. The country’s number of working individuals grew from 36.39 million to 36.46 million while its total labor force went from 37.80 million to 37.85 million. The labor force participation rate, furthermore, climbed from 56.1% to 56.2%.