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Posted June 10, 2026 at 12:55 pm
There’s a 98% chance, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike its 2% interest rate to 2.25% tomorrow morning. The monetary policy institution is responding to well above target inflation of 3.2% and is looking to quell overall cost pressures driven mainly by the energy shock stemming from the Middle East war. The continent is especially vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices, since it’s a major importer of the commodity. Japan, meanwhile, is expected to follow suit with an increase of its own next week.
Initial unemployment claims due tomorrow are expected to come in at around 220k, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market. Such a result would remain in the safe zone from a labor perspective, however, there is a 13% probability of a result that exceeds 230k, which could be worrisome depending on where exactly it arrives. Additionally, the “Yes” at 210k is going for $0.83. Similarly, the 33 forecasters in the monthly Reuters survey stand at a median of 219k, against the backdrop of a wide range of possible outcomes spanning from 210k to 234k.
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has carried a 3-handle for three consecutive weeks, even coming in at a fresh year-to-date high of 3.2% last Thursday. The reacceleration is on and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market see a 34% chance of a new peak above 3.2%, as they consider the possibility of a figure north of 3.4%, but at a more tempered 8% probability. Below, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 3%, 2.8% and 2.6% are costing $0.61, $0.73 and $0.86, indicating a strong likelihood of a continuation of this robust expansion.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 10, 2026.
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