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Posted March 11, 2026 at 12:45 pm
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran sent equities lower in late February, with the Nasdaq briefly dropping more than 4%. Markets have since recovered, but the story isn’t over. In this video, we break down the key forces now in play for retail traders and investors trying to make sense of what comes next.
The bigger concern may be oil. Prices spiked sharply following the escalation, pushing 2-year inflation breakevens from roughly 2.5% to above 3.2%. That move puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position, balancing a softening labor market against the risk of renewed inflation pressure.
We walk through what the March 6th jobs report revealed, why the upcoming CPI release on March 11th may be less telling than usual, and when the full impact of higher oil prices is likely to show up in the data. We also explore a nuanced point on labor market interpretation: could rising AI productivity expectations be suppressing hiring without signaling a true economic slowdown? It’s a question worth considering as investors parse each new data release. Insights from Jim Iuorio. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/micro-emini-equity.html
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Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.
Trading options on futures contracts involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Selling (writing) options on futures exposes the seller to potentially unlimited risk of loss, as the seller may be required to fulfill the terms of the contract if the market moves unfavorably. Losses can exceed the initial margin or premium received. Before engaging in short options strategies on futures, you should carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. You must fully understand the risks involved, including the possibility of losing more than your initial investment. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA) require that you receive and review the Options Disclosure Document (ODD) before trading options on futures. This document explains the characteristics and risks of options trading.
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