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Posted October 13, 2025 at 12:54 pm
Germany’s initial Consumer Price Index (CPI) release has already been provided, publishing increases of 0.2% month over month and 2.4% year over year and landing at a value of 122.6 for September. In light of this indicator’s subdued revision rate, it’s safe to say, in my opinion, that tomorrow’s result will likely be 122.6, while 122.4 and 122.8 would be significant surprises. Meanwhile, the forecast trades with attractive risk-reward profiles against this backdrop are the “Yeses” from 120.5 to 122, which range from $0.96 to $0.85, as well as the “Nos” from 123 to 124.5 which are going for $0.85, $0.95 and $0.96.
“Yes” To US Gas Prices Above $3
The US government has been shutdown but the Department of Energy has continued releasing economic data under normal publication schedules until further notice. Against this backdrop, it’s highly unlikely that US gas prices broke below the $3 level, a number it has exceeded every week since the one ended on December 29. The previous figure was $3.124 for Oct. 6, and for “Team Yes” to lose here, a sharp 4% weekly decline would be required.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct.13, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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