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Posted October 2, 2025 at 12:59 pm
The government shutdown will prevent the release of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report, but our prediction market points to a modest miss when the figure is eventually released. Indeed, the median estimate for September jobs is 50k, but the associated contract carries pricing that points to a 54% chance that the print will fail to exceed 50k. Few market participants are projecting a negative print, however, as there’s an 86% probability of a result above 0. A big beat also has slim assigned odds, as a statistic exceeding the 100k threshold is at 11%.
Our prediction market participants only assign a 34% chance that September unemployment will exceed the consensus expectation of 4.3%, which would mark an unchanged month-over-month reading. A drop to 4.2% or lower is at just 21%, while a fall to 4.1% or beneath is at a mere 6%.
The Nov. 1 government shutdown “Yes” contract carries a 37% probability, as participants price in the potential for continued disagreements in Washington.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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