- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted September 23, 2025 at 12:58 pm
Residential transactions have been extremely weak recently, a result of lofty valuations and elevated mortgage rates constraining affordability, while immigration restrictiveness reduces the volume of prospective buyers and renters. Against this backdrop, I highly doubt that new home sales will mark a 42-month high at 745k seasonally adjusted annualized units and for that reason I find the risk-reward profile of the “No” at 745k attractive, it’s going for $0.96. This indicator has a heavy deviation rate and a huge beat or miss is possible and in light of the volatility, I’m staying away from other thresholds. The median estimate for this print is 650k.
Despite weakening trends, I still expect the median sales price, released in the same report, to remain above $400k, with my specific estimate at $410k, in light of heavy land values amidst pricey financing, wage and materials bills. But as I maintain a downward bias in consideration of the sector’s recent softness, I like the “Yes” at $385k, a level that hasn’t been touched in over four years, since July 2021. The threshold costs $0.92.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 23, 2025. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “No” answers throughout different levels.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. For a copy visit our Warnings and Disclosures Page.
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Related Articles
Hi for the first time i try to make 1 trade like your NO 745k but after hours and hours of trying i did’t find the 745K price and i find very hard to manage to get there … asking some of my friend and none could do it ??
Hello, thank you for reaching out. Please create a web ticket using the link below so our support team can assist you promptly. https://spr.ly/IBKR_TicketCampus
I did all that but with no result