Consolidation trade in play as market awaits new catalysts

Briefing.com Summary:

*Early conviction is lacking, which isn’t a bad thing.

*The stock market appears to be waiting on “new” catalysts.

*Gemini Space Station, a crypto platform, is set to go public.

The stock market has made its share of noise this week, helped in large part by Oracle (ORCL) and a spate of IPOs. This morning, things are relatively quiet, evidenced by the lack of conviction in the equity futures market.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down three points and are trading fractionally below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 98 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

This lack of conviction isn’t notable because there is a lack of buying conviction. On the contrary, it is notable because there is a lack of selling conviction on the breakout to new all-time highs and the attendant concerns about valuations being stretched.

The market is effectively riding the trend until the price action tells it to jump off that ride. That message hasn’t been delivered yet.

Separately, there aren’t many “new” messages being delivered this morning in terms of catalysts. That, too, has contributed to the lack of conviction in the equity futures trade.

The notion that the market expects three rate cuts before the end of the year is well known; the understanding that the AI capex cycle is in beast mode is well known; and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs and the impending changes at the Federal Reserve is, ironically, well known. That is, there is a sense of certainty at this time about that uncertainty, and the market is living with it (amicably, we might add).

The onus is on the news cycle to disrupt the bull market trend, and that hasn’t happened yet.

Some of the key news items this morning include Microsoft (MSFT) and OpenAI signing a non-binding memorandum of understanding for the next phase of their partnership; Adobe (ADBE) posting better-than-expected results and guidance; luxury furniture retailer RH (RH) posting weaker-than-expected results and guidance; Gemini Space Station (GEMI), a crypto platform, readying to go public; and the M&A dalliance between Paramount Skydance (PSKY) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

Call it a hodgepodge of news developments. Just don’t call any of it market moving this morning.

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Originally Posted September 12, 2025 – Consolidation trade in play as market awaits new catalysts