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Betting Against Quantum Dreams

Betting Against Quantum Dreams

Posted August 18, 2025 at 10:00 am

IBKR Securities Lending Desk

As AI workloads and computing demand ramp up, investors are increasingly looking toward quantum technologies for a breakthrough and to stand out amongst their competitors. One company, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), bills itself as a vertically integrated quantum computing company – developing everything from superconducting chips to cloud-access platforms. Unlike legacy firms that dabble in quantum, Rigetti is a pure-play, vertically integrated quantum developer – offering hardware, software, and cloud-based access to quantum systems through its QCS platform. 

Rigetti recently caught the attention of investors after achieving a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its 35-qubit Ankaa-class system, reducing its error rate in half compared to previous results. The announcement in July 2025 sent the stock surging more than 30% intraday. But beneath the technical win lies an unprofitable firm with limited commercial revenue. In Q1 2025, the company reported $1.47 million in revenue, down 51% YoY, while operating losses increased to $21.6 million.

Despite the volatility, Rigetti remains flush with cash – $237 million – thanks to a fresh capital raise and a staggering $35 million investment from Taiwan-based company Quanta Computer. As shown in the TWS dashboard, utilization reached over 80% in July 2025, indicating strong demand to borrow shares.  The Short Interest Indicator (SII) – which reflects only street-loan activity – currently hovers around 28%, its highest value since 2023.

RGTI Short History (7/8/2025 – 8/6/2025):

Overlaying RGTI price with utilization, borrow fee, and Shortable Shares

Overlaying RGTI price with utilization, borrow fee, and Shortable Shares

Source: Interactive Brokers Trade Workstation (TWS) – Fundamentals Explorer – Short Selling tab

Historical Revenue Consensus (FQ1 2023 – FQ1 2026)

 Historical Revenue Consensus (FQ1 2023 – FQ1 2026)

Source: Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation (TWS) – Fundamentals Explorer – Estimize Releases tab

Historical Earnings Per Share Consensus (FQ1 2023 – FQ1 2026)

Historical Earnings Per Share Consensus (FQ1 2023 – FQ1 2026)

Source: Interactive Brokers Trader Workstation (TWS) – Fundamentals Explorer – Estimize Releases tab

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