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Posted August 8, 2025 at 11:20 am
Increased clarity regarding global trade is a tailwind for the UK economy, but the Bank of England’s recent decision to cut its key interest rate following a hotter-than-anticipated inflation print illustrates the significance of labor market conditions. The monetary policy authority, in the end, prioritized employment health over price pressures considering that job losses are mounting amidst quickening cost forces. But it took an unparalleled two rounds of voting to reach a majority.
More specifically, weakening employment trends convinced 5 of the bank’s 9 policy members to eventually vote in favor of trimming the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%. Following the move, the BoE maintained that it is committed to reducing inflation and to reaching its 2% target. The decision comes shortly after data depicted a 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) decline in gross domestic product and a slowing job market. The Consumer Price Index, however, climbed from 3.4% year over year in May to 3.6% in June, almost double the institution’s objective.
In June, the UK surrendered 41,000 payrolled workers relative to the previous print and it marked the 7th month of job losses in the past 8. Additionally, payrolls have declined for 5 consecutive months following an incredibly modest gain of 1,425 employees in January. Further justifying the monetary policy accommodation, the unemployment rate has climbed from a cycle low of 3.6% to 4.7%.
Consumer spending, furthermore, remains weak, with volumes still 2.7% lower than the pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In May, retail sales declined 2.8% m/m. The decrease was followed by a weaker-than-expected 0.9% increase in June.
In another matter, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey opined that U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a man of “utmost integrity.” Powell has been criticized by US President Donald Trump for not supporting a faster pace of interest rate reductions.
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