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Posted August 19, 2025 at 12:00 pm
Tomorrow morning’s Canada New Housing Price Index for July is expected to post a 0.1% month-over-month increase following three consecutive months of declines while March served an unchanged value. I find the risk-reward profiles of the “Nos” attractive starting at 0.2% all the way up to 0.4%, which range from $0.87 to $0.94 in cost, because the indicator hasn’t climbed more than 0.2% since May 2022, over three years ago. But after three months in a row of negative numbers, I think the “Yes” at 0.3% is also undervalued at just $0.63, a level that the print has exceeded in all but two recent months going back all the way to June 2009, during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 19, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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