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Posted June 16, 2026 at 2:13 pm
There’s a 68% chance that there will be no dissenters in tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as new Chair Kevin Warsh gears up for his first presser at the helm. And if there is formal disagreement amongst the committee, participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believe that there’s a greater likelihood of less rather than more, with the odds declining as the threshold increases from 1 to 2 to 3. There’s close to a 100% probability that the US central bank will hold its benchmark steady, although the curve points to a hike being the most likely outcome at year-end relative to pausing or cutting.
Participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market expect another strong retail sales publication to be released following last month’s 0.5% print. Consumer spending has been resilient in the face of persistent inflation accompanied by rising interest rates and despite those headwinds, investors anticipate that the buoyancy will continue. Indeed, the odds of exceeding April’s figure of 0.5% are 61%, while above and below there is a 13% likelihood of a number north of 1% and a 7% chance of a reading that comes in south of 0.1%.
This indicator
carries an elevated deviation rate, meaning that it has a greater potential than normal of coming in significantly off from the consensus range, or in other words, it offers a loftier probability of a substantial surprise. Emblematic of the historical variability, the 57 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll stand at a median of 0.5% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of -0.1% and 0.9%.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 16, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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