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Posted July 7, 2025 at 11:20 am
The November mayoral election is a hot topic among IBKR ForecastTraders with more than 1 million contracts tied to the New York City race being traded. The predictive marketplace points to a 68% chance of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, who secured the Democratic Party’s primary nomination recently, earning the keys to Gracie Mansion. Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is the only other politician meaningfully on the board at the moment, despite running at a distant second, sporting a likelihood of 30%. But there’s plenty of weeks left, as votes are due on November 4. In light of a longer time horizon, investors who initiate a position will benefit from approximately four months of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.83% and shift in proportion to the changing values of the purchased forecast contracts. Finally, outside of Mamdani and Adams, there’s no alternative candidate on the screen with at least a 4% probability of winning, considering former governor Andrew Cuomo is in third place and carries odds of 3%.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 7, 2025. Interest-like incentive coupons change proportionally alongside shifts in the fed funds rate.
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Whether Mamdani’s political platform is 100% successful or not – which is a lot bigger than “just” the mayor to accomplish – the shift in the voting dynamics, the social conversation and the insight of the interests and the will of the people is a much-needed change to our country overall. It’s human nature to want to make a 180 degree shift when things are going wrong, so THAT is the messaging in this, not completely about Mandani’s social democrat agenda.
Every time I call it says you’re experiencing an enormous number of calls so why not just say you just don’t have enough people to answer the phone. I always press one to get a call back but tell them ever get one so can somebody call me back 760 274-4128
Hi Jeff, thank you for contacting us and we are sorry to hear that you have had an unsatisfactory experience. The best place to start is the Quick Support feature located in Client Portal: ibkr.com/help
Also, we are happy to answer any general questions here.
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Ahoy
Mamdani – a real communist – is totally unacceptable. The fact that the Dems are not saying that shows how decrepit they are.
Truly sad to see New York leaning further to the extreme left. The Dummycrats hate their country and want everything to burn to the ground.