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Posted June 6, 2025 at 11:30 am
Initial unemployment claims jumped to 247,000 during the week ended May 31. For the next print, however, I’m expecting a reading of 236,000, as the indicator shifts back to trend and remains range bound. If you look at the chart below, you can see that the series has tended to dwindle back to the 225k area after climbing towards 250k in the past 12 months.
In consideration of my projection, I like buying the “Yes” and “No” answers at the 220k and 260k thresholds which together cost $1.80. The combination trade is profitable on a number as low as 221k or as high as 260k, delivering $2.00 back to the investor. We haven’t seen a figure north of 260k in almost 4 years. Finally, I also like the risk-reward profiles of the “Yes” answers at 200k and 210k, each costing $0.96, as well as the $0.94 pricing of the “No” answer at 270k.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 6, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different thresholds.
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