Tariff Confusion And Tax Day To Create Volatile Week

The misinformation age has gone from bad to worse, which means the onus is on all of us to read reports thoroughly, not just the headlines and what is being talked about on social media platforms. In the age of Trump 1.0, this was a harsh lesson many investors failed to learn; it had a sting. In the time of Trump 2.0, the stakes seem higher, given the size of the market swings, the valuations the stock market sits at, and the speed at which it moves.

Case in point: the news on Saturday that Trump would exempt smartphones and chips from reciprocal tariffs. The social media crowd took to this very quickly, claiming Trump was caving. But remember, this is only for the reciprocal tariffs, which at 140% means all trade stops, so it seemed crazy from the start. However, this is not the 20% tariff related to fentanyl; those tariffs still stand.

There were reports that America cannot rely on China to manufacture critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones, and laptops. Therefore, autos, steel, pharmaceuticals, chips, and other specific materials will be included in specific tariffs to ensure that tariffs are applied fairly and effectively. So it sounds like one set of tariffs is out, and another is yet to come.

A few hours later, it was noted that Trump would provide more info on chip tariffs on Monday.

For some time, I have understood that the Trump team wants more chips made in the US and not in China. So I would guess that we will find out, perhaps Monday, that either specific tariffs will be coming soon or there will be a discussion on the tariffs to come. I could be wrong here, but I would be really surprised to see there be no additional tariffs just on technology goods while there are tariffs on just about everything else.

That said, given the excitement, stocks could open higher on Monday due to a lack of understanding. How long those gains last will, I guess, depend upon how long it is until Trump starts talking about tariffs on technology-related items, again. So maybe half a day 🙂

I would like to see the S&P gap filled at 5,455 and 5,660, to see how the market acts at those levels. They would tell us a lot about the type of market we are in.

That said, this week is tax week, and the TGA is probably due to rise by around $400 billion from its current state, which is a depleted $315 billion. A $400 billion rise in the TGA would mean that reserve balances are due to fall by around $400 billion, and that could push the reserve to around $3.0 to $3.1 trillion.

This could pressure general collateral rates higher, which in turn could push secured overnight financing rates higher as well, again creating some liquidity constraints in the market. Reserves are likely only to rise slowly as the TGA drain is slower than the rise. So once we see those reserves drop, they will take some time to rise again.

Additionally, GSE cash is likely to begin entering the Repo market and the reverse repo facility by mid-week, which could result in the reverse repo facility rising and pushing reserve balances below $3 trillion by the end of the week or the beginning of next week. That means that over the next week, we could see some severe liquidity constraints hit the market.

Given that it would not surprise me at all to see a market rally fade, especially should the index fill one of those gaps and stall. But we will see..

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Originally Posted on April 13, 2025 – Tariff Confusion And Tax Day To Create Volatile Week

Terms By ChatGPT:

1. Onus – Responsibility or duty.
2. Valuations – The process of determining the current worth of an asset or company.
3. Reciprocal tariffs – Tariffs imposed in response to tariffs placed by another country, aiming to mirror or retaliate equally.
4. Semiconductors – Materials used to make electronic circuits; essential in making chips for electronic devices.
5. Tariffs – Taxes or duties to be paid on a particular class of imports or exports.
6. TGA (Treasury General Account) – The U.S. Treasury’s account at the Federal Reserve, used to manage government cash flow.
7. Reserve balances – Bank reserves held at the central bank; a key component of liquidity in the banking system.
8. General collateral rates – Interest rates for securities lending when the specific security is not important; a benchmark in repo markets.
9. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) – A benchmark interest rate for overnight loans backed by Treasury securities.
10. Liquidity constraints – A lack of readily available cash or easily tradable assets in the market.
11. Repo market – The repurchase agreement market where securities are sold with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date.
12. Reverse repo facility – A Federal Reserve tool to manage liquidity by selling securities with the agreement to repurchase them later.
13. GSE (Government-Sponsored Enterprise) – Financial services corporations created by Congress, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to enhance credit flow.

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