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Posted December 19, 2025 at 12:45 pm
Yesterday’s trading volumes on ForecastEx amounted to 3.01 million and the themes with 10k or more total transactions included the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the Japanese Yen/US Dollar currency pair and the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 benchmark. Additionally, today’s action so far is already north of 2.06 million and the events with 10k or higher excluding those mentioned above from December 18 include which political party will win majority control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections as well as the price of the Solana cryptocurrency.
The People’s Bank of China is likely to hold rates steady tonight with an 88% degree of confidence. There is around an 11% chance, however, that officials in Beijing will cut to support the nation’s weak economic conditions.
My estimate of Singaporean inflation is at 1.4%, slightly higher than the 1.3% median estimate. Against the backdrop of an indicator which has a relatively subdued deviation rate, meaning that it tends to come in near projections, the “Yes” at 1% should cost around $0.70. But it’s significantly undervalued in my opinion at just $0.28. Additionally, “the “Yeses” at 0%, and 0.5% are also attractive at $0.96 and $0.86, and so are the “Nos” at 2% and 2.5%, costing $0.98 each. Finally, the monthly Reuters poll comprised of 6 forecasters places the minimum expectation at 1% and the maximum at 1.5%, offering prediction market enthusiasts an opportunity to play the tails.
Hong Kong’s CPI is the opposite of Singapore’s in the sense that it has an elevated deviation rate and can sometimes feature significant swings. My expectations is at 1.2% while the 3 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll are ranging from 1.2% to 1.5%. I think there’s around a 25% chance of the figure coming in at 1% or below or above 1.5%, which is why I think the combination consisting of the “Yes” at 1% and the “No” at 1.5% is undervalued. The trade costs a total of $0.12 and delivers a $1.00 back to the investor on a swing to 1% or lower or a climb north of 1.5%. For context, the lowest print of the year has been 1% while the highest has been 2%.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 19, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.
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