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Posted October 3, 2025 at 9:30 am
Briefing.com Summary:
*New record highs continue to be set despite the government shutdown.
*The September employment report will not be released today due to the government shutdown.
*The market has its sights set on more rate cuts.
New record highs were reached yet again yesterday by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. It wasn’t an overwhelming show of breakout force getting there, but that isn’t what counts at the moment. What counts is that there still isn’t any convincing show of selling force.
The market continues to exhibit resilience to selling interest and participants continue to have fun with the buy-the-dip trade, which almost never seems to fail.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 10 points and are trading fractionally above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 56 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.
Interestingly, we read that one of the factors supporting the stock market right now is the notion that the government shutdown will only be temporary. We’re going to dispense with that nonsense right now. The market can’t be invigorated by that notion when it wasn’t even fearing the shutdown in the first place.
The shutdown began at midnight on October 1. The S&P 500 closed at a record high on September 30.
With the shutdown still a thing, the market won’t be getting the September Employment Situation Report today. It has come to terms with that, content to think that the lousy ADP employment change number earlier in the week (loss of 32,000 jobs) has effectively guaranteed another 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting.
Not to say that’s all the market cares about, yet the idea that another rate cut is coming is, well, what the market cares about since it is an integral part of its rosy outlook and willingness to look the other way when it comes to valuations being stretched.
There isn’t much to look at today in terms of corporate news.
Applied Materials (AMAT) warned of some revenue shortcomings because of restrictions on certain parts and services to specific China-based customers; Boeing (BA) will be delaying its 777X until 2027, according to Bloomberg; and the UAE deal for NVIDIA’s (NVDA) chips is facing long delays, according to The Wall Street Journal.
While the jobs report will have to wait for another time, the final S&P Global US Services PMI for September will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET (prior 53.9) and will be followed by the ISM Services PMI (Briefing.com consensus: 51.7%; prior 52.0%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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Originally Posted October 3, 2025 – The selling force is not with the market
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