- Bullish play with a target stock price of $337.50 or above
- Strategy has +49% upside potential and 4% overvalued
| Expiration | 20-Jun-25 |
| Buy | 332.5 Put |
| Sell | 337.5 Put |
| Credit: | $1.65 |
Tesla has seen its price gain +2.9% today to $352.66. Based on moving averages, TSLA has been in a uptrend since May 29, so this spread would be a great way to leverage a bullish outlook. Based on historical stock price behavior, this spread for TSLA has a theoretical 73% success rate.
Option Profit Calculator for TSLA Put Spread at 20-Jun-25 Expiration
> > Click to View this Strategy in TSLA Option Chain Profit Calculator
The optimal stock price for this option strategy is to close at or above $337.50 on the expiration date, June 20, 2025. In that scenario, both puts would expire worthless, allowing you to keep the entire $1.65 you received when selling the spread. That corresponds to a potential +49% return on the amount at risk with 12 days left until expiration.
The maximum gain will be realized if the stock price is at or above 337.50. The maximum gain is $1.65
The breakeven point is at 335.85, which is 4.8% below the current spot price.
The maximum loss will occur when the stock price is at or below 332.5. The max loss is $3.35.
TSLA Spread Current Market Price vs. Historical Average
Using historical data to measure how a similar spread in TSLA was priced in the market, the 4-year average value was 1.59, with a high mark of 1.86 and a low of 0.92.
Currently, this vertical put spread is bid at 1.65 and offered at 1.85. The midpoint of the spread is 1.75.
If we use 1.59 as our historical fair value benchmark, the current market bid price is at a 4% premium, while the current market midpoint represents a 10% premium.
| Current Price | Historical Values of Similar Spreads | ||||
| Bid | Ask | Midpoint | Average | High | Low |
| 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 1.86 | 0.92 |
Market Chameleon captures daily records of market data to calculate historical benchmarks and generate estimated values.
Takeaway
The TSLA put spread we’ve identified here can be a good way to play a bullish outlook because the option strategy has a +49% upside potential, is 4% overpriced relative to historical measures, and will benefit from a stock price at or above $337.50.
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Originally Posted June 3, 2025 – TSLA Overpriced Credit Put Spread has 49% Yield Potential
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