This Question Looms Large Over the 2026 Stock Market

For investors, 2026 began on Wednesday, a few weeks before the nonfinancial world.

The outcome of 2025’s final meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting committee—which saw rates cut by a quarter point, to 3.5%-3.75%—shifts investor focus to 2026, where so much will be decided that is critical to the stock and options markets.

Lower rates, coupled with the specter of more cuts, means markets have a bullish wind at their backs. The opposite is true if future cuts don’t materialize.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets in January, March, April, June, July, September, October, and December 2026. The meetings will be crucial for markets.

As we predicted for 2025, President Donald Trump has been a powerful market arbiter. His power will be tested Nov. 3 by the congressional midterm elections. If Republicans maintain control, Trump will have maximum power during his final years. If Republicans lose control, the pro-market president will be weakened, though gridlock should largely protect markets from puerile politicians.

Either way, the Fed remains supremely important. Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council’s director, is reportedly Trump’s leading candidate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends May 15. Hassett is expected to heed Trump and keep lowering rates.

This scenario introduces some nasty risks. The Fed should be independent of politics. If it is perceived otherwise, investors will eventually worry that monetary policy has been tainted—which could cause price volatility as well as more serious, unforeseen consequences.

Of course, lower rates also encourage borrowing and consumption. Consumer spending powers America’s economy, and that often increases corporate earnings, lifting stocks.

But if rates are too low, market leverage and borrowed money will flourish. They can be viruses that infect markets, ultimately leading to a crash.

Many investors believe that making money is as easy as buying stocks during declines—since they believe stocks always go up. Another generation called that the “greater fool theory,” but rising equity prices also power an amnesia machine.

To be candid, it’s easy to fret about risks and to warn of declines. Investors react to scary stories, perhaps more than tales of riches. But it is irresponsible to play down the risks posed by the “stocks always advance” mentality, or the options market’s role as America’s casino.

Low-cost put and call options have made gambling on corporate earnings, economic reports, and higher stock prices a national pastime.

For a growing number of people, so-called zero-dated options are the preferred gambling instrument. As the name suggests, these puts and calls expire in a day or so, making them cheap to buy and very valuable if the bet is a winner.

There’s nothing inherently dangerous about them, except this: Zero-dated options enshrine and legitimize gambling behaviors, which have always existed in markets, though rarely this level.

One day, perhaps in 2026, those options lottery tickets will be listed on stocks, not just on major indexes and exchange-traded funds. When the exchanges turn stocks into daily Lotto games, those bets will be profitably absorbed by sophisticated dealers, especially Citadel, Susquehanna, and Wolverine.

Each year, those firms become more intelligent and more omniscient about the markets, while the market mob becomes more animalistic and less focused on risks taken in pursuit of rewards.

A mighty reckoning will occur, but probably not in 2026, and almost certainly not before the Fed does what investors, and the president, love so much.

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Originally Posted December 10, 2025 – This Question Looms Large Over the 2026 Stock Market