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Posted July 29, 2026 at 11:30 am
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields recently surged to an 18-month high above 4.7%, marking a sharp reversal from earlier in the year. With the bond market actively re-pricing, traders are looking closely at the core drivers behind the move and how upcoming central bank policy could impact the curve. In this update, Jim Iuorio of JI Financial Strategies breaks down the three primary factors pushing yields higher: strong economic growth data from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker, inflation concerns tied to rising oil prices, and the sheer volume of Treasury supply hitting the market to fund deficit spending. Jim also looks ahead to the July 29th FOMC meeting. With the CME FedWatch tool showing unusual uncertainty around a potential rate hike, the stage is set for post-meeting volatility. A hike could be interpreted as recessionary, potentially pushing long-end yields lower, while unchanged rates might stoke long-term inflation fears and drive the 10-year yield even higher.
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Originally Posted July 28, 2026
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