Weekly Market Recap: Week of December 1, 2025

The week in review

• Retail sales rose 0.2% m/m and 4.3% y/y
• Consumer confidence fell to 88.7 from 95.5

The week ahead

• PMIs
• Consumer spending
• PCE price index

Thought of the Week

Last Friday, U.S. consumers, hungry for deals instead of Thanksgiving food, kicked off what is expected to be a solid holiday shopping season. A recent National Retail Federation survey suggests this Thanksgiving shopping weekend could have seen a record 187mn shoppers, with holiday retail sales expected to surpass $1tn for the first time. This season also raises an important question for investors: Who benefits most from U.S. holiday spending, domestic retailers or foreign producers?

The U.S. domestically produces most of the goods and services it consumes. Last year, imports represented just 14% of U.S. GDP. However, the U.S. may be more reliant on imports than this figure suggests, especially for goods often gifted during the holiday season. This week’s chart shows the import content of different consumer goods categories, or the share of consumer spending attributable to value added abroad, as calculated by the San Francisco Fed. When U.S. households gift electronics or apparel, over 25% of that spending goes to imports, while the remaining 75% is retained domestically. The import content of recreational nondurables, which include toys, at just 17% may surprise some. However, this is because the bulk of their costs to consumers are driven by domestic expenses and markups.

Both domestic retailers and foreign producers have reason to cheer during the U.S. holiday season. That said, with a large share of our holiday dollars spent going toward imports, investors should remember two things. First, widespread tariffs could increase the cost of spreading holiday cheer this year. Second, those looking for exposure to U.S. consumerism can likely find opportunities across international markets trading at attractive discounts relative to their U.S. peers.

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Originally Posted December 1, 2025 – Weekly Market Recap

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