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Posted June 25, 2026 at 1:49 pm
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to keep rates unchanged this afternoon as fixed-income observers call the end of the institution’s easing cycle. The nation is navigating inflation that is still too elevated amidst a slowing economy, and although the next move is anticipated to be a hike, the monetary policy authority is poised to proceed with caution to avoid further denting growth. Price pressures are hovering at 3.55%, exceeding the official target of 3%; however, they are projected to decelerate sharply because fuel charges have sunk, hitting February lows this morning. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market prices a 95% chance of a pause and an approximate 5% likelihood of policymakers enacting another cut following the 25-basis point trim in May.
UMich Upward Revision Expected
Tomorrow’s final consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan (UMich) is expected to feature an upward revision from 48.9. Indeed, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market price the “Yes” 50 at $0.60, indicating a projected value around 50.5 when taking the “Yeses” at 48 and 52 into account; they’re going for $0.84 and $0.13. This indicator is highly influenced by gas prices and the recent plunge in energy costs that occurred within the 14-day gap between the preliminary and updated publications is poised to drive an improvement. Additionally, rising optimism about peace in the Middle East is also likely to have lifted household moods.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 25, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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