Stuck in holding pattern in front of earnings reporting period

Briefing.com Summary:

*Semiconductor stocks are on the rebound.

*The market is in a holding pattern, waiting on the Q2 earnings reporting period.

*Initial jobless claims remain in a steady state that suggests layoff activity, overall, is still quite low.

The U.S. and Iran exchanged more strikes, but none of what they did struck an overly sensitive nerve for the capital markets. Oil prices are up a little; Treasury yields are mixed; and stocks—mostly semiconductor stocks—are up a little more than a little.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 266 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

It is more of that ebb and flow action that is taking the indices everywhere and nowhere. The S&P 500 sits at 7,482.71 today, which is just about where it stood on May 22.

A holding pattern has formed for the stock market, which is casting one hopeful eye at earnings growth projections and another anxious eye at rising inflation and interest rates.

It is as if the market is waiting to see which is going to win out as the primary market driver in the coming weeks. If earnings growth projections are the victor, then this bull market will stay intact. If rising inflation and interest rates win out, then this bull market will run into some trouble.

Buy orders are flowing again for the semiconductor stocks. It is looking like nothing other than reflexive action, as that has been the natural order of things in front of the Q2 reporting period. Losses one day, gains the next. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Initial jobless claims are another component that has been in a holding pattern, which isn’t a bad thing since they are holding at low levels.

For the week ending July 4, initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 220,000), which is the same level they were at in December 2025. For the week ending June 27, continuing jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 1.814 million, which is roughly where they stood in March.

The key takeaway from the report is the same key takeaway as other recent reports: the low level of initial jobless claims continues to reinforce the understanding that layoff activity remains quite low overall.

That is a good dose of news for the economy, and it has been a good dose of support for the equity futures market.

The Treasury market has taken it in stride, reserving more of its directional judgment, it seems, for oil prices, which are up 0.6% to $73.96/bbl. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.19%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.57%.

There will be a $22 billion 30-yr bond auction, with results at 1:00 p.m. ET, which will be preceded by the June Existing Home Sales Report (Briefing.com consensus: 4.20 million; prior 4.17 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

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Originally Posted July 09, 2026 – Stuck in holding pattern in front of earnings reporting period