Macro matters at the forefront

Briefing.com Summary:

*Earnings results will continue to flow, but they will take a backseat this week to macro matters.

*Oil prices are up after Iran laid out some hard-line positions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

*The July CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales reports highlight this week’s economic calendar.

Earnings results and the stock market’s performance have been intertwined. The tell is that both are at record highs.

So far, there hasn’t been a let-up in the earnings momentum. That is evident in Q2 results that have more than doubled early estimates, as the blended growth rate sits at 50.9% with 89% of S&P 500 companies having reported, according to FactSet.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) was among the latest luminaries to report, sharing its results over the weekend, and, like others, it exceeded expectations. The company also gave itself a value-oriented boost with news of its first share buyback ($4.5 billion) since 2024.

Earnings results will continue to be released this week, but they will be running mostly in the background as macro matters take center stage.

That is the case this morning, with the U.S.-Iran conflict garnering added attention after Iran laid out a series of hard-line positions over the weekend for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In brief, the demands, which include the U.S. paying Iran damages for the war, unfreezing Iranian assets, and withdrawing the naval blockade, come across as non-starters for the U.S.

President Trump, for his part, said he is going to take a “low-key approach” dealing with Iran, using economic pressure instead of ordering more attacks, according to Axios.

The oil market isn’t so low-key this morning. To be fair, it isn’t high-strung either, but prices have risen in the wake of Iran’s position. WTI crude futures are up 1.8% to $79.60/bbl, and Brent crude futures are up 1.7% to $84.94/bbl.

There has been a slight pickup in Treasury yields in response. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.22%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.67%.

It will be a busy week for the Treasury market. There is a $58 billion 3-yr note auction Tuesday, a $42 billion 10-yr note auction Wednesday, and a $25 billion 30-yr bond auction Thursday. Tucked in between will be the July CPI report on Wednesday and the July PPI report on Thursday. Meanwhile, the July Retail Sales report will cap off a macro-driven week with a Friday release date.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 58 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 119 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

A 1.2% decline in Apple (AAPL), which was downgraded from Hold to Underperform at Jefferies, is cutting across the large-cap indices.

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Originally Posted August 10, 2026 – Macro matters at the forefront