Weekly Market Recap: Week of September 14, 2026

The week in review

• Headline and core CPI rose 3.4%/2.4% y/y
• PPI rose 0.4% m/m

The week ahead

• FOMC meeting
• Retail sales

Thought of the Week

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates by 25bps. The rate hike was unanimous amongst the ECB’s Governing Council and was widely expected by markets, with all eyes now focused on whether they will deliver another rate hike in either of their two remaining meetings this year. Meanwhile, both the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are scheduled to meet this week. While markets had expected that the BoJ would hike rates by 25bps, there wasn’t as much certainty in the Fed’s next move until Friday’s CPI print showed hotter than expected core inflation. Markets are now pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday.

Further out, markets are currently pricing in an additional three rate hikes from the ECB, three from the BoJ and three from the Fed by the summer of 2027. While the ECB, with resilient economic growth and elevated inflation from higher energy costs, and the BoJ, with strong wage growth and similar inflationary pressures, may continue on this path, we believe that the Fed will ultimately be less hawkish. Coupled with declining wage growth and receding tariff effects, inflation could quickly decelerate if hostilities with Iran cool after the midterm elections. If the Fed doesn’t hike while other central banks do, short-term yield differentials narrow. This causes foreign currencies to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, which could be a tailwind for international equities due to the currency boost to earnings and returns and the capital rotation abroad that a weaker dollar causes.

Despite already strong EPS growth this year, international equity valuations remain at a 32% discount to the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis. Throw in the potential currency pickup, and the case for adding international exposure to portfolios continues to be attractive.

Chart of the Week: Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset
Management. Fed: Federal Reserve. BoJ: Bank of Japan. ECB:
European Central Bank.
Thought of the week: Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset
Management.

—

Originally Posted September 14, 2026 – Weekly Market Recap

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.

The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature
or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.

Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide.

Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and/or recorded.

Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https://www.jpmorgan.com/privacy.

This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.

Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

^©JPMorgan Chase & Co., September 2026.

Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 14, 2026 or as of most recently available.