It’s over… for now

Briefing.com Summary:

*The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended with an agreement to provide funding through January 30.

*Walt Disney is down after its earnings report, while Cisco is up after its earnings report.

*The probability of another 25-basis-point cut at the December FOMC meeting has been reduced to the equivalent of a coin toss.

The government shutdown is over—at least until January 30. The House voted 222-209, with six Democrats joining the Republican majority, in favor of the continuing resolution that funds the world’s largest economy for just 78 more days. Then, we may get to do the shutdown all over again.

For now, there is relative relief that the end of the shutdown will facilitate easier holiday travel, notwithstanding what Mother Nature might have in store. There is relative financial relief for federal employees, and there is relative food relief for SNAP recipients.

It’s all relative because the only absolute right now is that this isn’t a permanent solution. That may be why the equity futures market isn’t exhibiting a huge sigh of relief over the news.

The real reason, though, is that the mega-cap stocks are mixed in pre-market trading; meanwhile, the positive response to Cisco’s (CSCO) better-than-expected earnings results and outlook has been offset by the negative response to Walt Disney’s (DIS) mixed report (beat on earnings and missed on revenues). CSCO is up 5.8%, and DIS is down 5.4%.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 120 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 99 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an interesting case. It has had a banner week (up 2.7%), having broken out to new record highs. It has outperformed all the major indices on a bit of a rebalancing trade that has favored blue chip stocks.

This has been a rebound week in general, though, with the mega-cap stocks and growth stocks getting off the mat following last week’s knockout. Nevertheless, valuation concerns continue to swirl along with reservations about the AI stocks having gotten ahead of themselves.

There are also reservations about what the delayed economic data from the government is going to show. The question is, when will that data start to show? Reports suggest we could get the September employment data next week, but that the October employment report and October CPI report, per White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, might never get released.

When the data arrive, however, look for a bouncing ball of rate-cut expectations, as every report gets looked at through the lens of what it means for the December FOMC policy decision. Fittingly, the outlook for another 25-basis-point cut in December has been reduced to the equivalent of a coin toss ahead of these stifled reports.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut to 3.50-3.75% in December is now just 53.4% versus 95.5% a month ago. Late yesterday, Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC voter) said she thinks it is appropriate to keep rates at the current level “for some time.”

Well, time is ticking on the data releases and the countdown to possibly the next government shutdown.

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Originally Posted November 13, 2025 – It’s over… for now