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Initial Unemployment Claims to Remain Subdued After Posting a 57-Year Low: May 5, 2026

Initial Unemployment Claims to Remain Subdued After Posting a 57-Year Low: May 5, 2026

Posted May 5, 2026 at 12:48 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Initial unemployment claims posted a 57-year low of 189k last week, as healthy labor conditions continue to reflect subdued layoff appetites. The Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, expects a modest increase back to trend levels, however, as a number above 200k carries a probability of 58%, while odds of a figure less than or equal to 210k stand at 71%. Under and over, the “Yes” at 190k and the “No” at 220k are priced at 83% and 82%, indicating a wide range of potential outcomes. Similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 40 forecasters indicates a median estimate of 205k against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projected values of 190k and 220k. 

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 5, 2026. 

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