Global Economics – October 1, 2021
Introduction
What an informative week that was and what an eventful week that lies ahead. Eventful because the Federal Reserve has cornered itself into something it always said would never happen: a policy shift dependent entirely on the outcome of one single indicator. Econoday’s consensus for September nonfarm payrolls of 475,000 would definitely fit Jerome Powell’s criteria for a “decent” report that in turn would trigger a November start to tapering; even perhaps the 300,000 low-end estimate of Econoday’s consensus range would be enough to qualify as “decent”, at least compared to August’s washout gain of 235,000.
The Global Economy
Employment
September is a hard month on its own to forecast, never mind a pandemic. The timing of school years, when the Labor Day holiday falls on the calendar, whether it’s a 4- or 5-week reference period, and not least hurricanes that all affect the history of September payrolls. This year is more difficult than ever given the shortage of skilled labor and the displacement of millions of workers. Looking back at data through September 2001, the as-reported result (that is the unrevised, actual print at the time of release) undershot Econoday’s median estimate in 15 of the 20 years. Does this point to the risk of another disappointment? Perhaps. A main risk to September’s outlook may well come from the sector that’s been playing havoc with all the data: autos where production, starved of parts, has been grinding lower. As for Fed policy, the balance in play is between: 1) employment where the need for prompt recovery points to the need for substantial stimulus; and 2) inflation where price pressures (still far beyond the Fed’s long-term 2.0 percent target) point to the need for withdrawal.
To read the remainder of Global Economics, please subscribe via Amazon Kindle or email [email protected] to get set-up today!
Disclosure: Econoday Inc.
Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.
© 1998-2022 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Econoday Inc. and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Econoday Inc. and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.