![Check Your Calendar [Spread]](https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/05/pod20250506mtkcham_coverimage-700x394.jpg "Check Your Calendar [Spread]")
Tomorrow’s final consumer sentiment read from the University of Michigan for April is unique to many of our other economic indicator offerings because we received a preliminary print on April 11. The initial read from April 11 can serve as a guide to evaluate which contract thresholds appear undervalued for tomorrow’s settlement.
When analyzing data back to October 2015, the revisions have generally been marginal, averaging -0.01 alongside a median of +0.1. The highest upgrade during this period was +3.1 in August 2022 while the greatest downgrade was -6.8 in March 2020, the month when COVID-19 lockdowns started. Excluding the pandemic, the greatest downgrade during this more than nine-year period was February 2025 at -3.1.
In light of the statistical relationships between initial and final reads, the ForecastEx pick of the week is the “No” answer to the question, “Will the US Consumer Sentiment Index exceed 54 in April 2025?” The “No” answer is priced at $0.78 for tomorrow’s print, which is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET. For Team “No” to lose, April’s preliminary read of 50.8 would have to get upgraded to at least 54.1. An upgrade of 3.3 would be the highest adjustment during the nearly 10-year analysis period as shown in the chart below.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 24, 2025.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Leave a Reply
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: ForecastEx
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx forecast contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: Forecast Contracts
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Disclosure: ForecastEx Market Sentiment
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Disclosure: CFTC Regulation 1.71
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Not available now!
Hello, thank you for reaching out. Can you please explain the issue you are experiencing in more detail, so we can best assist you? We would appreciate the opportunity to turn around your experience.