Conviction among sellers still lacking

Briefing.com Summary:

*The S&P 500 is on a seven session winning streak.

*A lack of selling interest has been influenced by talk of a melt-up into year end.

*Dell has raised its long-term growth guidance.

Seven Up… it’s a carbonated soft drink and it is also a catchphrase for the latest S&P 500 winning streak. Coincidentally, that streak coincides with the government shutdown, which is now in day seven after another vote in the Senate on a continuing resolution failed to get the 60 votes needed for passage.

The Senate will reportedly try again today, as will the stock market, which doesn’t look ready to stop trying for more record highs.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up six points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 57 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 45points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Those indications don’t connote a lot of buying conviction, but at this juncture, that isn’t the key consideration. The key consideration is that there still isn’t any selling conviction. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which gained as much as 37% yesterday on its OpenAI partnership, is up another 5.0% in pre-market trading.

The lack of selling interest has been influenced by talk of a melt-up into year-end, by rate-cut optimism, by AI enthusiasm, and by experience, as every dip (intraday or otherwise) gets bought.

Dell (DELL) is supporting the non-selling cause, having increased its long-term guidance at a securities analyst meeting. Dell now expects to deliver 7-9% annual revenue growth, versus prior guidance of 3-4%, and 15%+ EPS growth, versus prior guidance of 8% or better. That is a comforting combination that has the stock up 6.7% in pre-market action.

Dell’s strength is a boon for the S&P 500 information technology sector and the Nasdaq 100 futures, yet buyers in aggregate are treading lightly ahead of the open, taking in the news that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, that Constellation Brands (STZ) posted better-than-feared results, that IBM (IBM) is partnering with Anthropic in an enterprise deal, that Ford (F) and other automakers will face production issues after a fire at a key aluminum supplier, and that the U.S. is investing $35.6 million for a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (TMQ).

The August Trade Balance Report will be delayed due to the government shutdown, so the market’s attention will shift to the New York Fed’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations at 11:00 a.m. ET, the $58 billion 3-yr note auction results at 1:00 p.m ET, the August Consumer Credit Report (Briefing.com consensus: $13.1 billion; prior $16.0 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET, and comments from various Fed officials, including uber-dovish Fed Governor Miran (FOMC voter), throughout the day.

Market participants, therefore, will have plenty of things to keep themselves occupied over the course of today’s trading, but the focal point will be the price action and whether it persists in keeping sellers at bay.

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Originally Posted October 7, 2025 – Conviction among sellers still lacking