Americans Spent a Record $11.8 Billion on Black Friday Despite Economic Worries

If you listened solely to the mainstream media or consumer sentiment polls this week, you might believe the U.S. economy was grinding to a halt. The Consumer Confidence Index fell nearly 7 points in November, a byproduct of the record-long government shutdown, while 57% of Americans anticipate a weaker economy in 2026, according to a recent Deloitte survey.

But if you were to head to the airport or a major retailer this week, you’d see a completely different reality.

Polls and surveys can be helpful on occasion, but as investors, I think it’s important to look not just at what consumers are saying but also what they’re doing. Americans are telling pollsters they’re anxious about the future, but they’re voting with their wallets in a record-setting way.

The Golden Age of Travel Continues

I’ve written often about the Golden Age of Travel, and this holiday season is proving that the trend is far from over.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects this Thanksgiving holiday travel period to have been the busiest in 15 years, and with good reason. According to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) data, more than 3.1 million people were screened at U.S. airports on Sunday, November 30, alone, marking an 11.5% volume increase over the same travel day last year.

Eight of the 10 highest-volume days in TSA history, in fact, have occurred in 2025, representing a daily increase of about 14,000 travelers per year over 2024. This tells me that despite the economic headwinds, the “experience economy” is still winning, and Americans are unwilling to sacrifice their mobility and family time.

The Strategic Shopper

Black Friday has come and gone, and the results confirm that some anticipated: this year is setting up to be a red-letter holiday shopping season, with consumers appearing to be focused on deals and promotions, especially online.

Online spending reached a record $11.8 billion on Black Friday, increasing 9.1% compared to last year, according to Adobe Analytics. E-commerce sales jumped 10.4%, while in-store sales grew more modestly at 1.7%, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. Overall, retail sales (excluding autos) were up 4.1% on Black Friday compared to 2024.

Before last week, the National Retail Federal (NRF) predicted holiday sales would surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever in 2025. This ambitious forecast comes as the average shopper tells Deloitte they expect to spend $1,595 this holiday season, which is down a not-insignificant 10% from 2024.

So how do you get record aggregate spending with lower individual budgets? The simple answer is volume. According to the NRF, approximately 187 million people are planning to shop during Thanksgiving weekend, a new record.

You can see a preference for value in the strong earnings from discount retailers like Walmart, which raised its 2026 sales outlook based on e-commerce growth (27% globally in Q3) and success in attracting high-income shoppers. Deal-seeking consumers are relying on promotions, with 82% planning to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up from 79% last year, according to Deloitte.

What I found particularly shocking from Adobe’s report is that AI-driven traffic to retail site soared an astonishing 805% over last year, as consumers used chatbots and shopping assistants find the best deals.

Climbing the Wall of Worry

Despite the headwinds—a recent government shutdown, high tariffs, elevated inflation expectations—American consumers remain the engine of the U.S. economy. They’re worried, yes, but they’re also boarding planes and spending where they find value.

The market always climbs a wall of worry, and right now, the U.S. consumer is showing remarkable resilience.

The picture for the yellow metals looks positive, I believe. Deutsche Bank just raised its 2026 gold price forecast, citing persistent central bank buying and growing ETF investment. Looking further ahead, the investment bank maintains a price forecast for 2027.

On behalf of everyone at U.S. Global Investors, I wish you and your family a safe and Happy Holidays!

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Originally Posted December 1, 2025 – Americans Spent a Record $11.8 Billion on Black Friday Despite Economic Worries

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The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a monthly survey that measures consumers’ optimism about the economy, business conditions, and their personal financial situation.