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Posted February 6, 2026 at 12:00 pm
Bitcoin is off about 40% from its October 6 peak near $126,000, back to levels we hadn’t seen since around March 2025. In this video, we dig into what’s actually behind the move beyond the usual “risk-on” framing, starting with how closely BTC has been tracking the Nasdaq and why that correlation tends to tighten when markets get stressed. We also look at a key shift that started in October: Treasury yields stopped falling. The 2-year has mostly gone sideways, but the 10-year has pushed notably higher, from around 4.0% to 4.3%, with the dollar firming up alongside it. That combination makes the “Bitcoin as a hedge” argument harder to sustain, and it helps explain why price action lately seems to reflect both liquidity conditions and broader risk appetite. Finally, two macro stories worth paying attention to: Kevin Warsh as the presumptive next Fed Chair and what the dovish-versus-hawkish debate around that means, plus a new government shutdown that could limit the flow of economic data in the near term.
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Trading in digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, is especially risky and is only for individuals with a high risk tolerance and the financial ability to sustain losses. Eligibility to trade in digital asset products may vary based on jurisdiction.
TRADING IN BITCOIN FUTURES IS ESPECIALLY RISKY AND IS ONLY FOR CLIENTS WITH A HIGH RISK TOLERANCE AND THE FINANCIAL ABILITY TO SUSTAIN LOSSES. More information about the risk of trading Bitcoin products can be found on the IBKR website. If you're new to bitcoin, or futures in general, see Introduction to Bitcoin Futures.
Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.
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