Trump Address Sends WTI to $114, but Equity Investors Buy the Dip Anyway: April 2, 2026

President Trump’s address last night disappointed investors that were looking for details on how and when the Iran war will end. The commander in chief’s apprehensive posture included warnings that the adversary would be hit extremely hard in the next few weeks, and those hostile comments along with other statements sent WTI crude up from around $97 when he started his speech at approximately 9:00 p.m. EDT to $105 at midnight and just short of $114 this morning. Stocks sold off heavily in the premarket, as participants were expecting the US leader to quell Wall Street anxieties rather than intensify them; however, the hunger for good news on the geopolitical front put green on the screen roughly 45 minutes after the opening bell in response to news that Tehran is working with Oman to monitor vessels across the critical Strait of Hormuz. The development didn’t provide much of an alleviation for oil prices, but dip buyers saw an opportunity to scoop up shares aggressively even as there was no clear reason to do so. The knee-jerk reaction is emblematic of recent headline driven trading, as folks buy dips on red sessions and begin praying for a positive announcement intraday that would deliver a powerful reversal rally. Elsewhere, Treasuries and the greenback are advancing on a mix of slowdown concerns and safe-haven demand, although the economic calendar featured healthy labor data from both Challenger, Gray & Christmas and the government’s unemployment claims print. Volatility protection instruments and forecast contracts are experiencing interest in light of turbulent action, while cryptocurrencies and non-energy commodities are tanking on weaker animal spirits and decelerating activity projections.

Labor Data Point to Stable Employment Conditions

This morning’s labor data continued to reflect healthy employment conditions overall, although AI did trigger some layoff announcements. The government’s report on jobless claims signaled 202k initial filings during the week ended March 28, lighter than the median estimate of 212k and the prior period’s 211k. Continuing applications, which lag the first-time segment by seven days, totaled 1.841 million, similar to the anticipated 1.840 million but north of the 1.816 million from the previous interval. Four-week moving averages depicted improving trends, as they declined on both fronts from 210.75k and 1.846 million to 207.75k and 1.839 million.

In more positive news, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that workforce reduction intentions were down 78% year over year (y/y) in March, while hiring plans had nearly tripled on a month-over-month (m/m) basis. Still, job cuts rose 25% m/m, with around 25% of employers citing AI as the reason for payroll trimming.

President Trump Was Positive About Stocks, Gas Prices Last Night

Despite President Trump’s confrontational tone last night, the commander in chief essentially tried to communicate that things will be alright after the war potentially ends in a few weeks. The US leader expressed sensitivity regarding stock market volatility and soaring gasoline prices, two measures that the constituency are historically obsessed with since they deliver a substantial impact on consumer sentiment via household finances. His attempts to reassure investors and families through the multiple equity records achieved under his tenure alongside pain at the pump that’s just temporary are part of what motivated the intraday dip buying in stocks today, although equities dove back into losses several minutes later. Indeed, the President faces the challenging task of remaining tough on Iran while convincing Wall Street that the Trump put is alive and well, which marks somewhat of a shift from the TACO maneuvers that traders had gotten used to.

International Roundup

Canada’s Trade Deficit Deepens

Canada’s goods trade deficit expanded from $4.2 billion in January to $5.7 billion in February, the largest deficit since August 2025.The country’s imports rose 8.4% m/m and imports climbed only 6.4%. While the growth of goods shipped beyond the country’s borders trailed imports, February’s result was a reversal from the 5.2% retreat in exports during January. Shipments of motor vehicles and parts to other countries jumped 24.2% following a prolonged-seasonal shutdown of factories that hurt results in January. Also in February, metal and non-metallic mineral products grew 11.2% and farm, fishing and intermediate food items were up 10.5%.

In other developments, Canada’s trade surplus with the US narrowed from $4.9 billion in January to $1.7 billion in February, the smallest surplus with the county since May 2020. Imports from Canada’s southern neighbor were 13.6% higher m/m while exports to the US grew only 4.4%. However, exports to other countries were 10.5% above January’s total while imports from non-US sources rose only 1.6%.

Singapore Manufacturing Growth Slows Slightly

Singapore manufacturing appears to be showing early signs of disruption from the Iran war with the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management PMI gauge slowing from 0.1 point from February’s 50.6 print. Even with the decline, March was the eighth consecutive month in which the gauge surpassed the contraction-expansion threshold of 50. New orders, export purchases, factory output and employment expansions slowed although the electronics sector strengthened.

South Korea Price Pressure Was Softer Than Expected

South Korea’s Consumer Price Index climbed 2.2% y/y and 0.3% m/m, falling below the 2.4% and 0.6% economist consensus estimates in March. While the y/y pace accelerated from 2% in February, the m/m result was unchanged. When excluding food and energy, which have volatile prices, the core CPI climbed 2.2% y/y and 0.1% m/m, decelerating from 2.3% and 0.4% ascents in February.

For the m/m headline print, the transport category led with a 3.4% hike. Other categories that became more expensive and the extent of the changes were as follows:

• Education, 0.5%
• Health, 0.4%
• Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance, 0.4%
• Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 0.2%
• Restaurants and hotels, 0.1%

The alcoholic beverages and tobacco category and the clothing and footwear group were unchanged and the food and non-alcoholic beverages component became 0.9% less expensive. The recreation and culture classification and miscellaneous goods and services category each saw prices drop 0.1%.

Gold Adds Luster to Australia’s Trade Surplus

Australia’s February trade surplus more than doubled from the preceding month as investors responded to uncertainties regarding the Iran War by snatching the country’s non-monetary gold. The value of items shipped to foreign lands exceeded imports by $5.68 billion, up from $2.26 billion in January, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Economists estimated that the country’s surplus would increase to only $2.8 billion. Overall exports were 4.9% higher m/m after sinking 1.6% in January while imports slipped 3.2%, a reversal from January’s 1% ascent.

Purchases of Australian products were led by non-monetary gold and rural goods, which climbed 29% and 13.9%, respectively. Among rural goods, the following groups and the extent of their changes supported the growth of exports:

• Meat and meat preparations, 26.8%
• Wool and sheepskins, 13.1%
• Other, 15.5%

Conversely, cereal grains and cereal preparations sank 8%.

Regarding imports, non-monetary gold and capital goods contracted 41.3% and 8.1%, which more than offset the 3.4% and 3.1% gains for consumption goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods while purchases of goods from other countries slipped 3.2%. 

And Job Vacancies Reach 14-Month High

Demand for construction workers and customer service employees pushed Australia’ job vacancies up 2.7% to 337,900 during the three-month period ended in February. The increase resulted in the highest number of help-wanted ads since November 2024 and was largely driven by the private sector, which saw demand for recruits ascend 3.2%. During the reporting period, open construction positions jumped 19.3% with the industry experiencing strong demand for dwellings. In February, for example, approvals for building 19,022 house units were issued, the highest level since August 2021, when green lights flashed for 19,400 projects. Wholesale openings also increased during the three-month period with a 14.2% uptick, but vacancies sank 9.5% and 5.9% in the information media and telecommunications category and the arts and recreation services segment.